The issues surrounding North Macedonia’s integration into the European Union and NATO are among the most dominant political topics in posts across social networks. In their Facebook posts, politicians in power constantly repeat that the EU and NATO are the state’s top strategic goals, while on the other hand, it seems that citizens are increasingly skeptical of their words. Opposition parties, on the other hand, completely avoid topics that do not suit them. At the same time, they use the apathy of the people for their own purposes and at the same time increase skepticism towards both institutions.

One of the key battlegrounds for the discourse around the future of the state in the EU and NATO is undoubtedly on social networks. Not only can politicians and other propagandists communicate directly with large numbers of people through them, but citizens can also directly share content and opinions with each other.

The latest research by the Metamorphosis Foundation within the framework of the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Beacon project, titled “Error 403: Identity Forbidden,” shows that the majority of Facebook posts about NATO and the EU have a positive connotation.

However, the full picture is obtained if one "scrolls" a little further down and looks at the comments on the same posts—almost all comments on popular posts related to the EU and NATO were negative regarding EU and NATO membership.

Most comments suggest that EU membership will result in the loss of Macedonian identity, history, and language. Pro-Russian views are also often observed, and the general narrative, the fear of losing identity and language, coincides with the language of pro-Russian propaganda, which indicates its influence on a part of the population.

The types of user accounts that post negative comments vary, but a large portion of the comments are from anonymous accounts or newly created accounts with few details about their personal lives. This suggests that there is a high probability that the comments from such accounts are part of an organized campaign. This is not unheard of, considering that former VMRO-DPMNE officials publicly revealed back in 2018 that the party had just such a “troll farm.”

If we "scroll" up again, we see that the majority of the most popular posts related to the EU and NATO are published by the profiles of public institutions or by prominent politicians from SDSM.

The report shows that politicians and institutions in power do not explain clearly enough what EU membership actually means. That is, they rarely explain how EU membership would positively impact the lives of the average citizen or what the exact consequences of the constitutional changes that Bulgaria is seeking as a precondition for continuing EU membership negotiations would be.

Most posts by SDSM officials promote meetings, events, or the signing of agreements. Crucially, they rarely provide substantive explanations of how they plan to address broader political problems, such as corruption and a divided society, which instill distrust among citizens.

However, the anti-NATO and EU narrative present in the comments did not appear out of nowhere—it is supported by various actors.

VMRO-DPMNE often portrays in its posts that EU values are not actually democratic and fair for potential member states, bearing in mind all the obstacles that North Macedonia has faced on its path to the EU. Additionally, they spread the narrative that SDSM, like all Macedonians, are hostages of Albanians and Albanian parties. This party and its leaders almost completely avoid writing anything about the country’s NATO membership on Facebook.

The Left shares the views of VMRO-DPMNE regarding the European Union, but, unlike them, they openly oppose NATO in their statements. The leader of the Left, Dimitar Apasiev, regularly calls NATO a terrorist organization and accuses the government of creating an environment in which it seems that there is no other alternative than an alliance with NATO and the EU.

The Left is also spreading the Russian narrative that aims to sow fear about the loss of identity of smaller states under Western influence. As evidence of this, they cite the fact that in 2023 the Moldovan parliament declared Romanian, not Moldovan, the official language of the state. The Left claims that by 2030 the same will happen in our country, that is, that Bulgarian will be voted as the official language.

Along with Moldova, The Left also uses Ukraine as an example of countries that have advanced further in EU membership negotiations, although they allegedly meet fewer membership requirements in terms of minority rights and levels of corruption.

Another important "sector" on social networks when it comes to NATO and EU-related posts are nationalist Facebook pages that bear names like "On the Path of Macedonian History" and "Sekula Vojvoda Fan Club."

Although these Facebook pages seemingly have fewer followers compared to the official pages of political parties, they have a strong influence because their followers are organic. That is, their fans often comment on their posts and share their content, which is different from politicians' profiles, where followers are "collected" through sponsored content and they do not interact as much with their pages.

Popular posts with provocative and open support for Russia and China and opposition to NATO can be found on nationalist Facebook pages, spreading narratives such as NATO waging the war in Ukraine and forcing member states like North Macedonia to pay for ammunition.

Such pages invoke the so-called Orthodox brotherhood and alliance with Russia, often quoting the ambassador of the Russian embassy in North Macedonia, Sergey Bazdnikin.

The embassy's online posts, meanwhile, present Russia as Macedonia's ally and itself as a victim, spreading classic pro-Russian arguments such as NATO holding Ukraine hostage.

Amidst all these intertwined narratives present in the public, media outlets do not adequately cover the same topics. There is a noticeable absence of analyses and columns among media outlets regarding the issues of EU and NATO integration. Namely, media outlets most often directly take over the content of politicians, which, as previously stated, rarely contain a substantive explanation of the benefits of EU and NATO membership.

Therefore, the authors of the research recommend that media outlets avoid directly copying politicians' statements when reporting on the EU and NATO and delve deeper into the same topics, and recommend that politicians use more specific examples in their reports and avoid overly formal language.

Additionally, it is recommended that the government, in its communication with the public, debunk certain disinformation narratives regarding EU and NATO integration, conscientiously using their large presence on social networks.

These are just some of the things that can be done to achieve a healthier and more informed online space. See the full report at this link.

The main tool used to obtain the data for this report is Crowdtangle. First, the keywords used for searching on Facebook were defined, with one group of keywords for opinions involving the EU and another for opinions involving NATO.

The Crowdtangle tool was used to search for Facebook posts in the first half of 2023 that contained these keywords.

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