Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the spread of anti-democratic disinformation remained a significant global concern, as it was declared a ‘super year’ for elections, which take place in 72 countries home to almost half of the world population. Some of the recent (Serbia in December) and upcoming elections (North Macedonia in April) directly concern the fragile democracies in the Western Balkans (WB).
Moreover, the outcomes of the upcoming elections for the European Parliament in June, affecting decision making in the European Union (EU) as well as the United States Elections in November, can have crucial impact on the geopolitics of the region, while on the other hand can be affected by potential influence of Balkan diaspora communities. Recent elections in Slovakia also highlighted the risk of use of AI generated disinformation that can be deployed in the Balkans Sporadic use of political deep fakes has already been noted in the region, mainly dissemination of globally spread images or video clips, with increasing local use of AI tools to create clickbait content.
Anti-democratic actors, from foreign authoritarian regimes to their domestic proxies or allies, utilized Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) expressed through disinformation and media manipulation to sow confusion and disrupt the region. The proliferation of various disinformation narratives, especially regarding Russian aggression towards Ukraine, continued to harm social cohesion and democratic progress in the WB, while drawing attention from issues affecting the wellbeing of citizens.
Russian propaganda seeks to manipulate public opinion, both within the WB countries and internationally to advance its geopolitical goals. This includes destabilizing the region through exploiting existing ethnic, national and cultural divides, and increasing distrust in institutions of democracy, undermining its pro-Western orientation, and increasing polarization about any sensitive topic. Additionally, by portraying Ukraine as a dysfunctional or dangerous state, Russian propaganda aims to justify its own aggressive actions and intervention in Ukrainian affairs.
This report is based on a continuous monitoring process of online media perused by the audiences in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, which also includes monitoring of social networks.
